By Gurnam Singh | Opinion |
In an era marked by the rise of dictators and resurgence of fascism, leaders worldwide must pay heed to the perils that befall those who govern with an iron fist. The age-old adage, “live by the sword, die by the sword,” rings true as despotic rulers find themselves confronted with the repercussions of their actions. When surrounded by criminal egotistical psychopaths like Yevgeny Prigozhin, the risk of betrayal looms large, reminiscent of Frankenstein’s monster turning on its creator. The current crisis in Russia, a nation governed under Putin’s increasingly autocratic regime, presents an uncertain path forward. However, one plausible scenario points to the potential disintegration of the Russian state, attributed to Putin’s abandonment of democratic principles in favor of a gangster plutocracy.
The imposition of sanctions has eroded the support base of Putin, leading to at best discomfort with the Moscow regime by influential oligarchs, whose assets are locked across thr world. Consequently, Putin finds himself increasingly exposed and isolated, with uncertain outcomes lying ahead.
The immediate threat ironically comes from his prodigy Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose humble beginnings as a hot dog vendor transformed him into a Russian oligarch. And through his Wagner militia he commands a well-armed private army, remains an enigma. The depths of his intentions, ambitions and capability remain shrouded in uncertainty, leaving room for speculation regarding his longer role in shaping the future of the nation.
As events rapidly unfold, the intricate puzzle of Russia’s crisis gradually takes shape. Speculation points to the possibility of a violent showdown in Moscow, envisioning Putin’s arrest, execution, or exile while Russian Generals take on the formidable Wagner militia and emerge victorious. However, these predictions remain speculative, and a clearer picture is expected to emerge in the coming days, shedding light on the nation’s destiny.
Contrary to being passive observers, the United States and NATO actively seek to influence the final outcome of the Russian crisis. Presented with the choice between balkanization of the nation or shaping a new Russia amenable to their interests, it is likely they will opt for the latter. The US could potentially leverage diplomatic channels through influential figures such as Erdogan in Turkey or even Modi in India to broker a deal. This deal, once Putin and Prigozhin are eliminated from power, may pave the way for the emergence of a new regime capable of meeting the demands of both the global powers and the Russian people.
A potential outcome of this deal could involve the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine and the installation of UN forces in disputed regions, such as Crimea. While such a transition may be disruptive, it represents a path with minimal upheaval, providing an opportunity for economic revitalization in a nation grappling with a gloomy outlook. Moreover, this resolution would likely lead to an end to the war in Ukraine, garnering support from China—an essential global trading nation. Stabilization in Russia and the subsequent lifting of sanctions would not only be welcomed by China but also mitigate the risk of a refugee crisis along their shared border.
The possibility of a relatively bloodless conclusion hinges on several critical factors. Firstly, it depends on the level of support that Putin can expect from his generals. Second, the courage of Russian Generals to take decisive action and remove Putin from power
Third, the resolve and capability of Yevgeny Prigozhin to carry out his threats and assert his influence.. Lastly, the success of US agencies in providing incentives and “sweeteners” to those who emerge as the new custodians of the Kremlin will prove instrumental. Harold Wilson, the Labour PM, famously stated that “a week in politics is a long time.” Given the rapidly evolving situation, it seems like a day or even an hour is a long time in politics!
Gurnam Singh is an academic activist dedicated to human rights, liberty, equality, social and environmental justice. He is an Associate Professor of Sociology at University of Warwick, UK. He can be contacted at Gurnam.singh.1@warwick.ac.uk
* This is the opinion of the writer and does not necessarily represent the views of Asia Samachar.
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